Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to the action at Sandown, Chester, The Curragh and Newton Abbot for his five stats-based selections on Saturday, August 31st…
CURRAGH 2.20
FIERY LUCY (system – Without Parole, 6f+, not debut)
Backing progeny of Without Parole at SP has shown a profit of £57.04 in the sire’s first season, with those competing over 6f or further, who had the benefit of at least one previous run, landing eight of their 34 starts for a profit of £67.04. Gavin Cromwell’s FIERY LUCY, a winner over 6f at Fairyhouse on her second of four starts, steps up to 1m for the first time but shapes as though the trip could suit and it’s worth taking a chance on her stamina.
NEWTON ABBOT 2.45
SILENT REVOLUTION (system – Paul Nicholls, first-time cheekpieces, finished fourth or worse last time out)
Paul Nicholls has a good record when using first-time cheekpieces and the value lies in backing those who ran fourth or worse on their latest start. Since the beginning of 2010, this angle has produced 38 winners from 153 bets (24.8%) for a profit of £76.01 to a £1 level stake at SP. (expected winners = 23.39, A/E = 1.62). SILENT REVOLUTION has struggled in three runs over 2m4f-3m since a second wind operation last summer, but his three wins came over 2m in small fields, conditions he encounters today, and the headgear could spark a revival.
CHESTER 3.50
BALON D’OR (systems – Kodiac, first-time blinkers, 5f-7f on turf and Hugo Palmer, first-time blinkers, geldings)
Progeny of the sire Kodiac often respond well to first-time blinkers, landing 20 of their 147 such starts over 5f-7f on turf (+£58.90 to a £1 level stake at SP) and Hugo Palmer’s BALON D’OR fits the bill in this 5f handicap. Palmer is ten from 56 when using this headgear on a gelding (+£31.38 to a £1 level stake at SP), with two of the five Kodiacs scoring (25-1 and 5-1).
SANDOWN 4.10
MAMMA MARIA (system – William Haggas, second time out 2yo, debuted at Newmarket)
William Haggas has a solid recent record with second time out 2yos who debuted at Newmarket, scoring with ten of the 31 qualifiers since the beginning of 2021 for a profit of £12.35 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who finished fifth or worse on debut had a nine from 23 record in the same period for a profit of £19.03. MAMMA MARIA failed to settle when a 17-2 seventh of nine on her recent debut and should fare better this afternoon.
SANDOWN 4.45
IMPERIAL TROOPER (system – Ed Walker, nursery debut, 7f+ on turf)
In-form Ed Walker has a fine record with nursery debutants over 7f or further on turf, scoring with nine of the 27 qualifiers for a profit of £31.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. Pace angle IMPERIAL TROOPER, a winner at Ffos Las on his latest start, should give us a good run for our money in this 7f contest.
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