Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount writes for the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, both published by the Racing Post, as well as GG.co.uk. His stats and systems based approach to value bets is a proven formula over time. Andrew provides SportsCasting readers with his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew heads to the meetings at Thirsk, Ffos Las and Salisbury for his three recommended bets/trades on Friday, August 30th…
THIRSK 2.45
At first glance, current favourite CUBAN TIGER looks to have plenty going for him in this 7f Class 2 handicap, as he looks the sole pace in the pace and comes out best on Proform’s last-time-out speed figures after his three-length 6-1 third at Goodwood earlier this month. However, he may have been flattered by racing prominently on the inside rail that day and the form is not working out, with the winner, runner-up, fifth, sixth and seventh all beaten since. The one I like at a much bigger price is DIAMONDONTHEHILL, who will be happier back over this course and distance after his seventh of nine over 1m at Haydock last time. The Michael Dods-trained six-year-old has raced here twice previously this year – dead-heating for first place before a neck second to CERULEAN BAY (re-opposes today). His yard has emerged from a quiet spell with two winners (9-1 and 10-11) and three seconds (20-1, 10-1 and 4-1) in the past few days and he rates a buy at 8 in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market (12-1 in the fixed odds betting at the time of writing).
Recommendation: Back DIAMONDTHEHILL in Thirsk 2.45
FFOS LAS 4.10
SURREY CHARM is the overnight mover in this 1m4f Class 6 handicap, but the daughter of Havana Gold is not bred to appreciate today’s deep ground – her sole success came on officially good going – and her patient running style could leave her vulnerable in a race likely to be run at a steady pace. The absence since last October and first-time tongue-tie are others concerns (progeny of Havana Gold are just 1-29 in this headgear on grass) and she rates a sell in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market. Fixed odds punters might want to side with pace angle THREE DONS.
Recommendation: Oppose SURREY CHARM in Ffos Las 4.10
SALISBURY 6.05
With front-runners LEVEL UP and CONNIE’S ROSE in opposition this 5f handicap could be set up for a closer, despite the small field. Outsider of five TWISTED TIARA is the one who will be carrying my cash. Rod Millman’s filly started life over 1m at Kempton back in April but improved for the switch to sprinting on her second start, scoring over the 5.7f trip at Bath. She bombed out on the Polytrack at Lingfield last time but the return to turf and switch to handicapping could bring about improvement. Her trainer has a good recent record with handicap debutants, scoring with 14 of the 95 qualifiers since the beginning of 2018 for a profit of £55.65 to a £1 level stake at SP. Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back TWISTED TIARA
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All of the most popular horse racing spread betting markets like Winning Favourites, the 50-30-20-10 Race Index, Winning Distances, Favourites and Squared Numbers are included. When it comes sports spread betting sites in the UK today, Spreadex are number one. Check out SportsCasting every day for more horse racing spread betting tips from Andrew Mount, complete with detailed analysis.