Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to the Flat turf action at Gowran Park and Goodwood for his three stats-based selections on Tuesday, September 3rd…
GOWRAN PARK 2.10
TASHIR (system – Kingman colt, 2yo debut, 7f+ on turf)
Progeny of the sire Kingman have a good record on their racecourse debuts, especially the juvenile colts who were lining up over 7f or further on turf. Backing all the qualifiers would have found 21 winners form 97 bets for a profit of £64.45 to a £1 level stake at SP. The Aga Khan-owned TASHIR, a best-priced 14-1 at the time of writing, could be worth chancing in this interesting 7f maiden.
GOODWOOD 2.20
NIGHT ON EARTH (system – Ian Williams, turf handicaps, won LTO, recent run)
Ian Williams has a fine record in turf handicaps with last time out winners who were returned to the track within nine days of their victory, scoring with 33 of the 80 qualifiers (41.25%) for a profit of £33.77 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 22.31, A/E = 1.48). NIGHT ON EARTH won going away at Catterick on August 28th under today’s 5lb claimer and can follow up.
GOODWOOD 3.30
JAKARTA (system – Paul & Oliver Cole, first-time blinkers)
Since the beginning of 2012, the Cole yard has a 17 from 91 record with first-time blinkered runners for a profit of £63.28 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 9.68, A/E = 1.76). Fillies who had the benefit of a recent outing (28 days or sooner) were five from 15 on this angle for a profit of £22.90 and JAKARTA fits the bill.
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