Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to the Flat turf action at Salisbury and Haydock for his three stats-based selections on Thursday, September 5th…
SALISBURY 3.20
LUNA GIRL (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)
Leading owners Amo Racing do very well with newcomers, regardless of age and who trains them, scoring with 47 of the 224 qualifiers (21%) for a profit of £33.73 to a £1 level stake at SP (prior to Cathedral’s run at Lingfield yesterday). Richard Hannon’s LUNA GIRL looks well drawn in stall 1 in this 7f fillies’ maiden and can make a winning start to her career.
SALISBURY 3.50
TROIA (system – Ed Walker, second time out 2yos, won or beaten by 5L or less on debut)
Ed Walker’s juveniles usually improve considerably for their debuts and those who showed promise first time out (scoring or running within five lengths of the winner) often makes good bets at the second time of asking, with 26 of the 80 qualifiers proving successful (32.5%) for a profit of £28.65 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 19.83, A/E = 1.31. This year’s qualifiers have recorded form figures of 11128 (3-5) and TROIA, well backed when scoring over this 6f trip on her debut at Newbury, can maintain her 100% record despite a wide draw.
HAYDOCK 5.20
FUN LOVING (system – Ralph Beckett, first-time visor, turf handicaps)
Since the beginning of 2010, Ralph Beckett has won with eight of his 30 runners who were fitted with a first-time visor in a turf handicap. Backing the qualifiers blind would have returned a profit of £31.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. The fillies were three form six (wins at 9-1, 11-4 and 2-1) and FUN LOVING, a winner in first-time blinkers at Nottingham on her penultimate start, can bounce back from her subsequent Ripon defeat in the new headgear.
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T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
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