Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Carlisle (Flat) and Worcester (jumps) for his three stats-based picks on Wednesday, September 11th…
EPSOM 2.00
BOLD IMPACT (system – Ralph Beckett, first-time blinkers)
Since the beginning of 2016, Ralph Beckett has a 32 from 168 record with his first-time blinkers runners (19.1% strike-rate) for a lovely profit of £94.10 to a £1 level stake at SP. BOLD IMPACT has been beaten at odds on the last twice but the soft ground won’t inconvenience him and the headgear can make the difference.
NEWCASTLE 8.00
DC FLYER (system – Kevin Ryan, Washington DC)
Kevin Ryan does well with the progeny of sire Washington DC, scoring with 11 of the 76 qualifiers (14.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £47.63 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 7.78, A/E = 1.41). DC FLYER contributed two of those wins and his two runs here at Newcastle have produced an 11-2 win and a 9-2 close-up second of 14. Hollie Doyle is an interesting booking and the three-year-old gelding can be backed to make all.
NEWCASTLE 8.30
WILLINGLY (system – Hot Streak, 5f on the AW, not Polytrack)
Progeny of the sire Hot Streak have a good record over 5f on Tapeta or Fibresand, landing 29 of their 168 starts (17.3% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £112.46 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 18.92, A/E = 1.53). WILLINGLY, trained by in-form Mark Usher, has a 0-9 record on synthetic surfaces but all those runs came on Polytrack over 6f-1m2f, and she looks a likely improver not running over the minimum trip on Tapeta for the first time. I’ve saved on HOWZAK, who has a good record in the autumn.
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T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
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