Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Leicester and the evening all-weather action at Newcastle for his three stats-based picks on Tuesday, September 10th…
LEICESTER 4.14
AZAHARA PALACE (system – Hughie Morrison, Leicester handicaps, Flat)
Since the beginning of 2017, trainer Hughie Morrison has a ten from 43 record with his runners in handicap company on the Flat at Leicester and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £33.65 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 6.34, A/E = 1.58). He’s only had two qualifiers so far this year, 4-1 winner Samoon Star in June and 9-1 scorer AZAHARA PALACE the previous month. The four-year-old followed that win with a respectable eighth of 24 to Doha in the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and, though well beaten the last twice, she could be worth chancing now back at this venue.
NEWCASTLE 6.00
SARMIENTO POWER (system – King Power-owned, first run after gelding, AW)
Owners King Power do well with newly-gelded runners on the all-weather, scoring with ten of the 29 qualifiers (34.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £5.51 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.75, A/E = 1.74). Roger Varian is two from three on this angle (winners at 5-2 and 2-1) and SARMIENTO POWER could be worth chancing on his handicap/all-weather debut.
NEWCASTLE 7.00
LATTAASH (system – Karl Burke, second time out 2yos, AW)
Since the beginning of 2010, Karl Burke has a 19 from 80 record with his second time out juveniles on the all-weather and backing them blind would have returned a huge profit of £105.78 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 12.26, A/E = 1.55). LATTAASH has been gelded since making a winning debut over 7f at Southwell last month and can maintain his 100% record.
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