Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew was among the winners on Thursday and has four stats-based picks at Doncaster, Chester and Salisbury on Friday, September 13th…
DONCASTER 1.50
DREAM HARDER (system – Jamie Spencer, Doncaster, fourth or worse last time out)
Jamie Spencer has a good record when riding at Doncaster, scoring on 72 of his 404 mounts (17.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £42.80 to a £1 level stake at SP. The value often lies with those who finished fourth or worse last time out, with 41 of the 192 qualifiers scoring (16.2%) for a profit of £83.58 (prior to Grey Cuban’s 10-1 win yesterday). DREAM HARDER will appreciate the rain that fell during racing on Thursday and can reward each-way support.
CHESTER 2.45
SIR GEOFF MORGAN (system – Tom Dascombe, restricted novice stakes, not debut)
Tom Dascombe has a solid record in restricted novice company, especially with his runners who had the benefit of previous experience. He’s scored with ten of the 33 qualifiers (30.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £28.64 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.29, A/E = 2.33). At Chester only his form figures are 115126 (3-6) for a profit of £10.66 and SIR GEOFF MORGAN can keep the ball rolling. For information, MA FILLE also qualifies on this system in the 2.10 at Chester.
SALISBURY 3.15
ORCHARD (system – Warren Greatrex Flat runners, second career start)
At the time of writing ORCHARD was a best-priced 100-1 for this 1m restricted novice company, which is understandable given his debut effort at Newbury last month where he finished a 28-1 last of 13. However, he was very green that day and Warren Greatrex-trained Flat horses usually take a big step forward from their debut efforts. Backing the ten previous qualifiers at the second time of asking would have found two winners (28-1 and 15-8) as well as three seconds (28-1, 17-2 and 7-2), a third (40-1) and a fourth (20-1), suggesting that Orchard has frame claims despite his heavy defeat on debut.
SALISBURY 6.35
TIRIAC (system – Jack Channon, autumn handicaps, Class 4 or better)
The Channon yard has traditionally done well in handicaps on the Flat (turf or all-weather) in the autumn months (September to November), especially in the better races (Class 4 or above). Since 2014, they’ve won with 43 of the 306 qualifiers (14.1%) for a profit of £104.98 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 28.61, A/E = 1.50). TIRIAC will appreciate the recent rain and the crop from Class 2 to Class 4 level will help after his disappointing effort at Goodwood last month.
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