Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew continued his fine form with 12-1 winner ROMAN HARRY on Monday and has three stats-based selections on Tuesday, September 17th…
YARMOUTH 3.05
NAANA’S SPARKLE (system – Twilight Son, second time out, beaten by 7L or less on debut)
Progeny of the sire Twilight Son have a poor record on their racecourse debuts, but they usually take a big step forward at the second time of asking. Those who showed promise when beaten on debut – defined as finishing within seven lengths of the winner – won 20 of their 84 starts (23.8%) for a profit of £19.85 to a £1 level stake at SP. NAANA’S SPARKLE, who I tipped up prior to her being a non-runner at Thirsk the other day (high temperature), is presumably over what was ailing her, and is taken to build on the promise of her debut effort when a staying-on 28-1 fourth of 12 at Salisbury.
BRIGHTON 3.50
SAINT RIQUIER (system – Ian Williams’ handicappers on the Flat (turf only), last time out winners, very recent run)
In-form Ian Williams has a cracking record in turf handicaps on the Flat with last time out winners who were returning to the track within 12 days of their victory, scoring with 42 of the 118 qualifiers (35.6%) for a profit of £38.60 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 27.73, A/E = 1.51). SAINT RIQUIER contributed on this angle when bolting up at Leicester last week and can follow up.
PUNCHESTOWN 5.30
THE COLA BRASIL (system – Mayson, handicaps, very recent run)
Progeny of the sire Mayson have an excellent record in handicap company when returned to the track within one week of their previous outing, with 44 of the 179 qualifiers (24.6% strike-rate) scoring for a profit of £75.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 29.82, A/E = 1.48). THE COLA BRASIL beat only a couple home at Galway a week ago but that run, his first for 151 days was probably needed, and he can be expected to do better today.
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Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets |
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. |
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Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
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