Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to the Flat turf meetings at Bath and Musselburgh for his two stats-based picks on Sunday, September 15th…
BATH 2.32
BRACKLESHAM BAY (system – New Bay 2yos, 7f+, turf)
Juvenile progeny of the sire New Bay have solid record when competing over 7f or further on turf in Britain/Ireland, with 51 of the 229 qualifiers scoring (22.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £33.98 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 33.39, A/E = 1.53). The strike-rate improves to 30.4% for those who finished in the top three last time out and Jamie Osborne’s BRACKLESHAM BAY, a nursery winner at Chepstow earlier this month on his first start since a gelding operation, can defy a 5lb rise.
MUSSELBURGH 3.22
SHIELAS WELL (system – Gran Tuer, fillies/mares in handicaps)
In-form Grant Tuer has a useful recent record with his female runners in handicaps (not just ones confined to fillies/mares), scoring with 26 of the 150 runners (17.3%) for a profit of £20.77 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who started as favourite were nine from 20 in that period (45%) for a profit of £10.44. SHIELAS WELL was trading at a top-priced 11-10 for this 1m nursery at the time of writing and could be hard to beat under a penalty after her four-length Newcastle romp on September 10th.
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T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
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