Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to the meetings at Redcar and Kempton (AW) for his three stats-based picks on Wednesday, September 25th…
KEMPTON 5.30
OLYMPIC MELODY (system – Race Guest AW runners on second career start)
Rae Guest has an 18 from 100 record with all-weather runners who were having their second career start and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £8.96 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 11.18, A/E = 1.61). The juveniles returned a profit of £22.60 and OLYMPIC MELODY, a solid 50-1 fourth of ten at Lingfield on her debut despite being hampered at the start, can reward each-way support.
REDCAR 5.40
BORDERLINE BOSS (system – Kevin Ryan 3yos, first run after a wind operation)
Since wind operations had to be declared in late January 2018, Kevin Ryan’s three-year-olds are 13 from 52 on their first run back after the surgery for a profit of £40.88 (expected winners = 5.65, A/E = 2.30). BORDERLINE BOSS was well supported prior to his ninth place over course and distance last time but the subsequent wind op suggests excuses that day and he could be worth another chance.
KEMPTON 7.00
ROOST (system – Ralph Beckett, first-time visor, handicaps)
Since the beginning of 2010, Ralph Beckett has a 13 from 58 record when using a first-time visor on one of his handicappers for a profit of £33.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 7.88, A/E = 3.85). ROOST did well to finish third over 1m4f here last time after blowing the start and the new headgear could help him to break cleanly this time.
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