Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew found well-backed winner THE KNIPHAND on Thursday and has four stats-based selections on Friday, October 4th…
ASCOT 2.47
WONDERFUL EAGLE (system – Adlerflug)
Simply backing all progeny of the sire Adlerflug in Britain and Ireland would have found 20 winners from 111 bets (18% strike-rate) for a profit of £33.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. WONDERFUL EAGLE contributed with a good-ground win over hurdles at Newton Abbot last time, a win that made it two from two since wind surgery, and he won’t be inconvenienced by the return to the Flat and slow going having won a 2m handicap at Goodwood on his penultimate start.
FONTWELL 3.45
FEEL THE PINCH (system – small-field pattern)
FEEL THE PINCH could only finish tenth of 17 in the Class 2 Summer Handicap Hurdle at Market Rasen last time but wouldn’t have enjoyed the huge field. Robbie Llewellyn’s ten-year-old now has form figures in fields of ten or more runners to 00690284566920 (0-14), as compared to 813141F13U311114421 (9-19) in single-digit line-ups for a profit of £57.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. His inexperienced conditional jockey will need to be aware of the track bias on soft ground here (the better ground is out wide) but he’s worth risking at the price (11-2 best at the time of writing).
FONTWELL 4.20
LORD CHESHIRE (system – Nigel Twiston-Davies, October)
As discussed prior to Kniphand’s Southwell win yesterday – the first of a treble for the yard – Nigel Twiston-Davies has a cracking record in the month of October, scoring with 259 of the 1271 qualifiers (20.4%) in the 20-year-period prior to yesterday’s racing (+£110.21 to a £1 level stake at SP). LORD CHESHIRE trailed home last of seven at Kempton ion February on his latest outing but won easily on his reappearance last November and the soft ground will suit.
FONTWELL 5.30
PRESENTING NELLY (system – Dan Skelton, first-time cheekpieces, finished 5th or worse on latest run)
Paul Nicholls has a good record when using first-time cheekpieces and it’s the same story with his protégé Dan Skelton. Like with the backing Nicholls’ runners in this headgear, the value lies in siding with those who finished out of the frame on their latest start, finishing fifth or worse. Since Skelton took out a training licence his first-time cheekpieced runners who finished out of the frame last time out have a 21 from 105 record for a very healthy profit of £56.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 15.52, A/E = 1.35). PRESENTING NELLY missed a good opportunity when Monday’s Newton Abbot card was abandoned but can gain compensation here.
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T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
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