Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Nottingham, Kempton and Navan for his three stats-based selections on Wednesday, October 9th…
NAVAN 3.51
DANCING BAY (system New Bay 2yos, 7f+, turf)
DANCING BAY wouldn’t be an obvious bet after his debut 13th of 15 over 7f at the Curragh but he was 40-1 that day, has been gelded since and the step up to 1m could suit. Backing all New Bay juvenile progeny over 7f or further on turf would have found 56 winners from 243 bets (23.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £37.88 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 36.86, A/E = 1.52).
NOTTINGHAM 4.17
CLIMATE ACTION (system – James Owen stable switchers, Flat)
Up-and-coming trainer James Owen has a fine record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other handlers, scoring with ten of the 35 qualifiers on the Flat (turf and all-weather combined) for a profit of £19.85 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winner = 5.47, A/E = 1.83). Nine of the ten winners came in handicap company (from 27 qualifiers) and CLIMATE ACTION, a daughter of Cracksman, is unlikely to have an issue with the soft going on her first start since leaving Michael Bell’s care.
KEMPTON 5.45
HOFBURG (system – Mehmas, nurseries, Polytrack only)
Progeny of the sire Mehmas have a 17 from 75 record in nursery company on Polytrack and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £107.46 to a £1 level stake at SP. Richard Hannon’s HOFBURG has shown promise in his four starts on turf, especially on his debut when fourth to the now 102-rated Symbol Of Honour at Lingfield. He weakened into a modest fifth at Haydock on his nursery debut but has been gelded since and could also improve for the change of surface.
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T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
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