Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
The action hots up on Saturday and in-form Andrew has a trio of stats-based selection at York and Newmarket on Saturday, October 12th…
YORK 2.05
VALVANO (system – Ralph Beckett handicappers, second run since gelded)
Ralph Beckett has a solid record with his handicappers who were having their second start after a gelding operation, scoring with 24 of the 107 qualifiers (22.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £69.86 to a £1 level stake at SP. VALVANO was turned over at odds of 4-6 at Salisbury last time but that run was probably needed and he’s worth chancing to bounce back.
YORK 2.40
THE GREEN MAN (system – Coral Sprint Trophy, single-figure draw, aged 4-6)
In the past ten years, backing all runners drawn in stall 10 or higher in this race would have hit the winner just once from 110 bets for a huge loss of £95.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.88, A/E = 0.21). Conversely, backing all the runners in single-figure stalls would have found the winner nine times from 90 bets for a profit of £29.00. We can narrow the field still further by only considering low-drawn horses aged four, five or six – this system would have found nine winners from 61 bets for a profit of £58.00. This produces a shortlist of just four runners – STRIKE RED, ORAZIO, THE GREEN MAN and SECRET GUEST, with marginal preference for Joseph Parr’s 40-1 poke who could be ready to strike on his third run back after a year off the track.
NEWMARKET 3.40
AQWAAM (system – Cesarewitch, top six finish last time out, fresh, patiently ridden in prep race)
We have to go back to 2003 to find the last incident of a Cesarewitch winner who didn’t finish in the top six in its prep race and other positive statistical angles for this marathon contest include freshness (a break of more than one month) and a patient ride last time out. Combining these three criteria has found six winners from 45 bets in the past ten years for a profit of £72.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.22, A/E = 2.70). There are four qualifiers in this year’s renewal – THE SHUNTER, AQWAAM, JACOVEC CAVERN and NDAAWI, with preference for Ian Williams’ runner who looked unlucky when sixth in the Chester Cup on his latest start.
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