Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew successfully opposed ASTA LA PASTA at Ffos Las on Sunday and has three recommended bets/trades on Monday, October 14th…
WINDSOR 2.12
The Rod Millman-trained BAMA LAMA usually thrives in high summer, landing six of her 25 starts in the June-August period for a profit of £10.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. She’s lost all 25 starts outside of the peak summer period, finishing second just once and third on four occasions. Her connections have found her a weak contest today, but she could only finish a six-length fourth at Nottingham last week, albeit over a longer trip than today’s and she looks value to oppose. Sell in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Oppose BAMA LAMA in Windsor 2.12
MUSSELBURGH 3.50
One or two of those at the head of the betting for this 7f handicap look flattered by their latest efforts and the value play is PRINCESS ALEX. Karl Burke’s three-year-old did too much too soon in a pace-collapse race when an 11-1 sixth at Newmarket last time (first three described by the Racing Post as “held up in rear”, “midfield” and “in rear”) and it was a respectable effort in the circumstances. Her three wins have come on good to soft or softer going and she encounters her preferred underfoot conditions. Throw in the pace scenario – she looks the only front-runner and could be in receipt of an easy lead despite her wide draw – and she appeals as a buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Back PRINCESS ALEX in Musselburgh 3.50
MUSSELBURGH 4.20
CODE PURPLE is well drawn in stall 1 for this 7f handicap and will be much happier back at this venue after beating only one home over 1m at Ripon last time. Ben Haslam’s five-year-old scored over 1m1f here on his penultimate start to take his course record to 1211 (3-4), with the defeat in a small field when the winner got first run. The cut back in trip won’t inconvenience him and he can be bought in the 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price (7-2 at the time of writing).
Recommendation: Back CODE PURPLE in Musselburgh 4.20
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T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
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