Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads Doncaster, Dundalk (AW) and Wolverhampton (AW) for his five stats-based selections on Friday, October 25th…
DONCASTER 2.08
JANEY MACKERS (system – New Bay, 2-3yos, recent run, top three last time out)
Progeny of the sire New Bay have a great record on the back of a top-three finish last time out, with the two and three-year-olds who raced within the past month landing 35 of their 108 starts for a profit of £29.45 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 24.66, A/E = 1.42). Char was a winner on this angle at Kempton on Wednesday night and perhaps JANEY MACKERS, a close-up third at Yarmouth on her recent debut, can go two places better.
DONCASTER 4.55
THE GOOD BISCUIT (system – Jack Channon, turf handicappers, good to soft or softer going, September to November, Class 5 or above)
THE GOOD BISCUIT trailed home ninth of 13 at Salisbury on his latest start but the middle draw wasn’t ideal for one who needs plenty of room in his races and he’d been off the track for 106 days. Jack Channon’s three-year-old only went down by a head in second place in a soft-ground 6f Ripon handicap on his penultimate start and his stall 7 of 9 draw looks ideal. Turf handicappers from the Channon yard typically run well on good to soft or softer going at the end of the season (September to November), landing 54 of their 284 starts (19% strike-rate) in Class 5 or higher company, since 2007, for a profit of £121.81 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 31.40, A/E = 1.72).
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.40
TRALEE GIRL (system – Michael Bell, second time out 2yos, all-weather)
Michael Bell has a good record on the all-weather with second time out two-year-olds, scoring with ten of the 88 qualifiers since the beginning of 2010 for a profit of £52.06 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who were rested for more than three weeks since their debut efforts were eight from 41 for a profit of £89.06. TRALEE GIRL ran green when runner-up over course and distance on her debut in late September and can go one better.
DUNDALK 7.00
TINO PAI (system – Sheila Lavery 2yos, six or more previous runs)
Sheila Lavery has a fine record with her more experienced (six or more previous runs) juveniles, scoring with six of the 13 qualifiers for a profit of £21.55. TINO PAI caught the eye when sixth of 14 in a Naas nursery on her latest start, doing best of those to come from off the pace, and can break her duck on her all-weather debut and seventh career outing.
WOLVERHAMPTON 8.15
KHANGAI (system – James Owen, stable switchers, all-weather)
KHANGAI has won just once from 25 starts but the switch to James Owen (from Mark Rimell) could bring about improvement. His up-and-coming trainer has a five from 20 record on the all-weather at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other handlers for a profit of £8.35 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those running at Wolverhampton had form figures of 111125 (4-6), prior to Come On John’s run in the 4.35 yesterday, and Khangai looks worth a bet having finished a creditable fifth off a 16lb higher mark on his sole previous course outing.
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