Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Newmarket (Flat) and Ayr (jumps) for his four stats-based selections on a busy Saturday (November 2nd)…
NEWMARKET 12.32
BRIDGET’S VIEW (system – Ed Walker, second time out 2yos, wo or beaten by 5L or less on debut)
Ed Walker has a cracking record with his second time out juveniles, especially those who showed plenty of ability on their debuts (defined as winning or finishing within five lengths of the winner). He’s scored with 27 of the 85 qualifiers (31.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £30.65 to a £1 level stake at SP, suggesting that BRIDGET’S VIEW, only beaten by a length and a half when a 16-1 fifth of ten at Haydock in August, can take a big step forward.
NEWMARKET 1.42
CHELSEA EMBANKMENT (system – Ralph Beckett, first-time visor, handicaps)
Since the beginning of 2010, Ralph Beckett has a 13 from 60 record with handicappers in a first-time visor and backing them all would have returned a profit of £31.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 8.25, A/E = 1.57). All 13 winners came in Class 4 or lower company and CHELSEA EMBANKMENT will appreciate drop in grade after last month’s runner-up effort in a Class 3 handicap at Nottingham.
AYR 1.58
FAITHFULFLYER (system – Sandy Thomson, winter runners)
Since 2012, backing all Sandy Thomson runners from the beginning of November until the end of February would have found 131 winners from 718 bets (18.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £223.85 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 113.00, A/E = 1.16). FAITHFUFLYER has contributed twice on this angle (from seven runs) for a profit of £4.75 and he’ll be fit after last month’s runner-up effort at Kelso.
AYR 3.39
THE KALOOKI KID (systems – Gentlewave, chasers & Nicky Richards, handicap hurdle to handicap chase switchers)
Simply backing all progeny of the sire Gentlewave in chases would have found 30 winners from 151 bets (19.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £28.60 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 20.87, A/E = 1.44) and chase debutant THE KALOOKI KID looks backable now that his attention is switched to the larger obstacles. Trainer Nicky Richards does well when switching one of his runners from handicap hurdle to handicap chase company, scoring with 11 of the 32 qualifiers since the beginning of 2019 for a profit of £35.60 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.24, A/E = 2.10).
 |
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. |
Claim Offer |
|
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets |
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. |
Claim Offer |
Check out the best horse racing betting sites in the UK right now.
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers aged 18 or over opt in and stake £10+ on any sporting event.
- The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1/2 (1.50).
- Once the qualifying bet settles 3x £10 free bets will be awarded to your account.
- Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with odds of 3/10 (1.30) or greater.
- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
- Each Way bets, system bets and profit boost are not permitted for qualifying bet.
- Free bets expire after 7 days of the qualifying bet settling, are non-withdrawable and stakes not returned with winnings.
- Further terms and conditions apply.