Use our key Ayr Cup trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of Saturday big sprint handicap at the Scottish track – including that the race has only produced five winning favourites since 1980.
Ayr Gold Cup Trends Say Favourites Have a Poor Record Since 1980 (but have done better in the last 9 years)
Since 1980 the Ayr Gold Cup has produced just five winning favourites – which is just an 11% return over this period.
Therefore, once we know the market leader for Saturday’s big race, the trends suggest horse racing fans should go carefully with those at the head of the market.
However, there is some hope for favourite backers as four of these Ayr Gold Cup favourites have come since 2015 – meaning the jolly has a much better 44% strike-rate over this 9 year spell.
At this stage last year’s runner-up Ramazan is one of those vying for the favourites berth with the best horse racing betting sites in the UK. With last week’s Portland Handicap winner American Affair also high up in the market.
The Ayr Gold Cup has also seen 52% of favourites unplaced in the last 23 runnings.
The Last Horse To Win Back-to-Back Ayr Gold Cups Was Heronslea In 1930 and 1931
12 months ago in 2023, the Julie Camacho-trained Significantly won the Ayr Gold Cup in decent fashion (watch below), but despite having an entry earlier in the week – the current champ was taken out at the final declaration stage on Thursday.
The last horse to win the race in back-to-back years was a runner called Heronslea in 1930 and 1931 – and his record will remain for another season at least.
More recently, the Dandy Nicholls runner Funfair Wane took the prize in 2002 and 2004 – just not consecutive seasons.
Trainer Kevin Ryan Has A Top Ayr Gold Cup Record
A trainer called Tom Dawson won the Ayr Gold Cup 15 times in the 1800’s and since then not many have come close to challenging that big haul.
However, if you are looking for a handler that does like to target this race – you should end your search with Kevin Ryan.
The North Yorkshire-based trainer has won the Ayr Gold Cup five times since 2007, so anything he runs should be respected. Including four times since 2011.
Kevin Ryan runs four in 2024 – Room Service, Sergeant Wilko, Jehanger and Aleezdancer.
Other trianers to note are Karl Burke (2 wins), Richard Fahey (2 wins), Andrew Balding (2 wins) and David O’Meara (2 wins).
- Burke – Lethal Levi, Korker, Sily Wilkie
- Balding – Fivethousandtoone, King’s Lynn
- O’Meara – No runners
Make 9st 1lb Your Ayr Gold Cup Trends Weight Cut-Off
Being a handicap sprint run over 6f, then weight carried is key too.
With that in mind, the Ayr Gold Cup trends point us towards 9st 1lbs being your weight cut-off point – with 16 of the last 23 winning with 9st 1lb or more – (70%).
The 2023 winner carried carried on this trend with 9st-2lbs and three of the last four have won with 9st-2lbs or more.
The 9st 1lb or more horses are numbered 1-18 this year – meaning there are 7 that fall outside this weight bracket.
Ayr Gold Cup Trends and Stats 2024
- 23/23 – Run within the last 8 weeks
- 20/23 – Run within the last 4 weeks
- 20/23 – 3 or more wins to their name
- 18/23 – Won over 6f before
- 18/23 – Didn’t win their last race
- 16/23 – Carried 9-1 or more
- 16/23 – Came from a double-figure stall
- 15/23 – Rated 90-101
- 14/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
- 14/23 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
- 12/23 – Raced at Doncaster (4), Goodwood (5) or Haydock (3) last time out
- 12/23 – Raced at Ayr before
- 12/23 – 7 or more runs that season
- 12/23 – Favourites unplaced
- 5/23 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
- 4/23 – Winning favourites (or joint) (5 winning favs since 1980)
- 2/23 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey (2 of the last 18)
- 2/23 – Won by trainer Andrew Balding (2 of the last 11)
- 2/23 – Won by trainer David O’Meara (2 of the last 10)
- 0/23 – Filly or mare winners
- Trainer Karl Burke has won the race twice (1994 & 1998)
- The last 7 winners were drawn 12+
- 14 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 19 winners came from stall 8)
- Since 1980 just 8 winners aged 6 or older
- Since 1980 just 2 winners aged 7 or older
- 16 of the last 19 winners carried 9-0 or more in weight
- The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronslea in 1930/31
- Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat
Ayr Gold Cup 2024 Time and Date
📅Date: Saturday 21st September 2024
⌚Time: 3:35pm
🏇Racecourse: Ayr (6f)
💰Winning Purse: £92,772
📺 TV: ITV and Racing TV
Look Out For Horses Draw In A Double-Figure Stall
With a maximum of 25 Ayr Gold Cup runners, then naturally the race will have more horses drawn in double figures – 16 as opposed to nine.
But it’s still worth noting that those drawn high have won 16 of the last 23 runnings (70%), while 14 of the last 15 came from stalls 8 or higher (93%), which suggests we can at least rule out those drawn 1-7. One of these is the expected favourite American Affair, who has stall 4.
Last year’s Ayr Gold Cup winner, Significantly was drawn in 14, with the winners since 2018 coming from stalls 17, 21, 24, 13, 25, 12 and 14.
While ALL of the last seven winners were drawn 12+.
However, the final interesting Ayr Gold Cup draw stat is that 4 of the last 19 winners (21%) came from the 8 berth – Rohaan has this draw in 2024. With both the 2016 (Brando) and 2015 (Don’t Touch) winners hailing from stall 8.
Horses Aged 4 or 5 Have The Best Recent Record
Next up is the age of horse to look for, with those aged either 4 or 5 having the best record in recent years.
Significantly was aged 5 in 2023 and since 2016 there have been six winners aged either 4 or 5.
While in the last 23 runnings this is further backed up with 61% of the winners (14) again aged 4 or 5.
In fact, since 1980, there has only two winners aged 7 or older. Meaning the older runners – Commanche Falls (7), Jordan Electrics (8), Aramis Grey (7), King’s Lynn (7) and Tinto (8) has this to overcome.
Look Out For A Top Four Finish Last Time Out
The final of our main Ayr Gold Cup trends to look out for are horses that recorded a ‘top 4’ finish last time out.
This is backed up with 61% of the last 23 runners finishing fourth or better in their last race before winning the Ayr Gold Cup.
So, another Ayr Gold Cup trend that will allow punters to knock out a fair few once the final decs are out.
Of the 25 runners, there are 15 horses that finished in the first 4 in their most recent race.
Ayr Gold Cup Runners 2024: The Final Entries
There will be a maximum of 25 Ayr Gold Cup runners heading to post for the 2024 renewal – with the final entries out on Thursday 19th September.
Here are the final Ayr Gold Cup runners ahead of the Saturday 21st race.
- Commanche Falls (Michael Dods / Connor Beasley)
- Northern Express (Michael Dods / David Egan)
- Ramazan (Richard Fahey / Oisin McSweeney)
- Korker (Karl Burke / Jason Hart)
- Orazio (Charles Hills / Billy Loughnane)
- Room Service (Kevin Ryan / Tom Eaves)
- Lethal Levi (Karl Burke / Clifford Lee)
- Jordan Electrics (Jim Goldie / Daniel Tudhope)
- Mostabshir (John & Thady Gosden / Jim Crowley)
- Silky Wilkie (Karl Burke / Sam Feilden)
- Fivethousandtoone (Andrew Balding / PJ McDonald)
- Coachello (Mark Loughnane / Callum Rodriguez)
- Pilgrim (David & Nicola Baron / Joe Fanning)
- Glenfinnan (Michael Dods / David Nolan)
- Aleezdancer (Kevin Ryan / Sean Levey)
- American Affair (Jim Goldie / Paul Mulrennan)
- Rohaan (David Evans / Tom Queally)
- Billyjoh (Michael Appleby / Alistair Rawlinson)
- Aramis Grey (Rae Guest / Callum Shepherd)
- Dare To Hope (Richard Fahey / Connor Murtagh)
- Jehangeer (Kevin Ryan / Shane Gray)
- King’s Lynn (Andrew Balding / William Carver)
- Sergeant Wilko (Kevin Ryan / Kevin Stott)
- Strike Red (Richard Fahey / Billy Garritty)
- Tinto (Michael Dods / Rhys Elliott)
Note: Final declarations were announced on Thursday 5th September
Ayr Gold Cup Recent Winners (last 10 years)
- 2023 – Significantly (8/1 jfav)
- 2022 – Summerghand (12/1)
- 2021 – Bielsa (15/2)
- 2020 – Nahaarr (7/2 fav)
- 2019 – Angel Alexander (28/1)
- 2018 – Baron Bolt (28/1) & Son Of A Rest (5/1 fav) (dead-heat)
- 2017 – Donjuan Triumphant (13/2)
- 2016 – Brando (11/1)
- 2015 – Don’t Touch (6/1 fav)
- 2014 – Louis The Pious (10/1)