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UK betting sites are unwilling to make Joe Biden the favourite to win the US presidential election but believe he will make it to the November 5 vote.
Betting on Mr Biden’s longevity as president has fluctuated over the past three years – ever since his approval ratings crashed following the botched withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.
The veteran has been scrambling to resurrect his popularity ratings for the majority of his first term and in most other circumstances would be the underdog heading into election year.
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However, so controversial has Donald Trump proved that Americans are split on whether to vote for the incumbent or give the Republican nominee another chance.
The pair are almost neck-and-neck in the polls, with Mr Trump leading by less than a percentage point.
And bookies are sticking with Mr Trump for now, with the market as-yet refusing to push Mr Biden into top spot.
Joe Biden Odds
Betfred were the first to price Mr Biden alongside the frontrunner Mr Trump at 11/10. Since then, three other bookies – including Betway – have followed suit.
Some have even pushed Mr Biden to Evens in recent days, suggesting he has a 50% chance of winning the election. However, those same bookies have Mr Trump even shorter, at 6/5.
No-one is yet willing to nudge the incumbent into top spot. The reason for this is twofold. One, Mr Trump is leading (narrowly) in the polls and has the edge in America’s swing states.
Two, 58.3% of bettors are backing Mr Trump for victory, with only 21.8% siding with Mr Biden. That weight in favour of the GOP candidate forces bookies to raise the Biden odds.
Of course, polls and betting data can be wrong and it’s likely that Mr Biden will see an uptick in support between now and the election.
Yet for now Mr Trump looks like the better bet when compared to his adversary.
Can Biden Beat Trump?
The Democrats have an almighty struggle on their hands if they are to overpower Mr Trump’s MAGA machine and stay in the White House.
Republican support is strong in swing states and the Dems are certain to lose Florida. Betting apps odds suggests this will be a close race but there are some factors in Mr Biden’s favour that will likely emerge over the summer.
The first concerns Mr Trump’s campaigning ability. He is currently in court over allegations he oversaw a “hush money” payment to an adult movie star to protect his reputation before the 2016 election.
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Three further cases are set to follow this year and could tie Mr Trump to court rooms, instead of the campaign trail.
Then there is the issue of money. Legal fees are eating into Mr Trump’s campaign funds, while Mr Biden has amassed more than $150m.
Money won’t win this election alone but Mr Biden is well placed. Issues around gun control and abortion appear to be siding in the president’s favour. Mr Trump is in a bind over abortion access as he relies heavily on the evangelical Republicans for support.
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Political betting sites will continue to move their presidential odds around but in reality this election is a coin toss.
We don’t even have certainty that Mr Biden – at 81 – will be fit to fight the election, or if Mr Trump – facing multiple criminal charges – will be a free man come November.
What we do know is punters are so-far leaning on the Republicans to win. The odds on which party will have a president in the White House – regardless of who their candidate is – remains narrowing in the GOP’s favour.
And that won’t change unless Mr Biden can start pulling in more voters. He has the summer to carve out a poll lead over Mr Trump and convince the bookies he’s the man for the Oval Office.
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