It almost seems as if Sean McDermott has as close to a lifetime contract as there is in today’s NFL.

Heading into his eighth season as Buffalo Bills‘ head coach, McDermott has presided over six playoff appearances, five straight 10+ win seasons and four consecutive AFC East division titles. Outside of an absolute disaster of a 2024 campaign, it seems like a guarantee that McDermott will be coaching Buffalo again in 2025.

In terms of the wagering market, McDermott is in a three-way tie for 10th place on the list of NFL head coaches most likely to be the first fired. BetOnline unveiled odds for the “First Head Coach Fired in 2024-25” and the gambling outlet assigned 12-to-1 odds to McDermott. Sean Payton and Kevin O’Connell are also listed at 12:1.

New York Jets’ fourth-year head coach Robert Saleh (5:1) headlines the list as the most-likely bench boss to lose his job first. Dallas Cowboys‘ often-criticized decision maker Mike McCarthy follows Saleh at 6:1.

The fact that the Bills have only advanced to the AFC Championship Game once while failing to reach the Super Bowl during McDermott’s tenure leads critics to question whether or not the franchise has “reached its ceiling” under their process-oriented head coach. With three-time NFL MVP finalist Josh Allen as its starting quarterback, Buffalo has seemingly underachieved in the postseason. The Kansas City Chiefs, who have won three Super Bowls in five years, have eliminated the Bills from the playoffs three of the last four years.

Bills’ fans have been tortured in the postseason under McDermott’s watch. The team blew a 16-0 second-half lead in a 2019 wildcard loss to the Texans. In 2021, Buffalo suffered through “13 seconds” as the Chiefs pulled off the improbable. Next, came the embarrassing 2022 beat down by the Cincinnati Bengals. In 2023, it was a three-point home loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round.

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Add it all up and one could make the case that the Bills should have moved on from McDermott. If it hasn’t happened yet, however, it’s unlikely to happen soon and it’s certainly not worth 12:1 odds.

Even if the Bills continue to flame out early, it’s hard to imagine team owner Terry Pegula dumping McDermott considering all that’s been accomplished for what was a downtrodden organization prior to the young head coach’s arrival.

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