US President Joe Biden has given Ukraine the go-ahead to use Western-made long-range weapons to strike inside of Russian territory as the war prepares to enter its third year.
Ukraine had long been asking for permission to use Western drones to help in its fight against Russia, but the US and UK held back for fear of escalation.
That’s now changed, and Ukraine is reportedly preparing for its first long-range attacks in the coming days.
Allowing Ukraine to use the missiles previously angered Vladimir Putin, who said if the West allowed it, it would ‘change the very nature of the conflict’.
He told a state TV reporter in September: ‘It would mean that Nato countries, the US, European countries, are at war with Russia.
‘If that’s the case, then taking into account the change of nature of the conflict, we will take the appropriate decisions based on the threats that we will face.’
Would the UK and US go to war with Russia?
It is possible Russia could retaliate against the West when Ukraine uses long-range missiles against them. But threats don’t always end up coming to fruition.
Russian expert Keir Giles told Metro: ‘Back in September I said there was no reason to think that after so many demonstrations of empty Russian threats, an extension of the use of missiles already in service would be the final straw that would trigger a suicidal response from the Kremlin. That remains the case today.
‘Delivery of aid to Ukraine is being treated as urgent now as the Biden administration is coming to an end – which leads people to ask why it wasn’t urgent before, as Ukrainian lives were at stake just the same.’
Mr Giles added: ‘The standard Russian reaction to anything that upsets the Kremlin or surprises them is an intensification of campaigns to target the most vulnerable in Ukrainian society.
‘This means attacks against hospitals, schools, shopping centres and critical national infrastructure.’
Is Europe prepared for potential Russian retaliation?
Though the chance of Russia retaliating directly against the West for allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles is low, it’s still a possibility.
The question of Europe’s preparedness for such a retaliation – which has been threatened by Putin multiple times in the past – is a different story.
Mr Giles told Metro: ‘Europe is not prepared because it is still in a state of panic at the thought that the American underwriting of the defence of Europe which it has relied on for the last 80 years is now in question.’
In February, the now president-elect Donald Trump suggested he wouldn’t respond to Russian attacks on ‘weaker’ Nato members who didn’t meet their defence spending budgets.
Under the terms of the alliance, all Nato members are required to spend 2% of their GBP on defence.
But figures released earlier this year revealed that only eastern bloc countries, the UK, Greece, the US and some Baltic nations were the only ones to reach or exceed the defence requirement.
Even with this, Mr Giles adds: ‘Trump is not to blame for the refusal of Western European leaders to accept their responsibility for the defence of their countries, their societies and their people – all he will do is show up how shamefully that responsibility has been ducked over decades.’
Could Putin declare war on NATO and start World War III?
American policy research group The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said earlier this year that Russia appeared to be preparing for a large-scale conflict with Nato.
Other changes within the Russian government, such as the appointment of Lieutenant General Andrei Bulyga as the deputy defense minister, may also suggest the country is preparing for a long-term conflict.
If any one member of Nato is attacked by a foreign power – for instance, if the UK were to be attacked by Russia – the other members would be obliged under the terms of the alliance to respond militarily to that threat.
The truth of the matter is that nobody really knows what will happen, so the likelihood of an all-out war between Nato and Russia for the time being simply depends on who you ask.
One thing, however, is clear: it’s a very long time since the chances of a third world war seemed this high.
How could Russia retaliate?
US officials previously told the New York Times that Russia could respond in a variety of ways if Ukraine was given the go-ahead to use western missiles to strike Russian territory.
These range from arson and sabotage on facilities in Europe, to potentially ‘lethal’ attacks on military bases in the United States and Europe.
Officials have attributed previous acts of sabotage in Europe to Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU.
There are worries they could expand their campaign if – or when – Ukraine is allowed to use western-made missiles in the war against Putin’s forces.
Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
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