Betting sites believe Sir Keir Starmer will still be UK prime minister at the next general election but aren’t so sure he would lead Labour to victory.

A petition signed by more than two million people calling for another general election has done the rounds this month as voters voice their frustration with the government.

There is growing opposition to a tough autumn budget, with farmers, motor vehicle producers, pensioners and businesses generally feeling the brunt.

Starmer came into office insisting he would not tax “working people” and Rachel Reeves’ budget has done just that. However, with Kemi Badenoch now in charge of the Conservatives, there is growing opposition to Starmer’s leadership.

Political betting sites don’t necessarily think the PM is about to walk but they have crushed their odds on his exit date coming at some point in 2025.

And with a long winter ahead, it’s unlikely that his popularity will improve over the coming months.

Keir Starmer Odds

Indeed, bookmaker Betfred recently dropped their odds on Starmer leaving Downing Street in 2025 to 11/4. 

Those odds suggest a 26.7% likelihood, which is a remarkable price for a PM who secured a 170 seat majority in the Commons back in July.

Starmer is holding his nerve for now and his cabinet is standing behind him. However, issues such as public spending and the debate over assisted dying is causing fractures across Labour.

The odds of Starmer losing his job in 2026 sit at 4/1, which is also very low. It’s hard for prime ministers to regain their popularity once it has sunk as low as his.

Saying that, so long as Starmer avoids any big scandals then there’s no real reason for Labour to oust their leader, or for the PM to call a snap election.

In fact, the bookies reckon he is well placed at 4/7 to lead Labour into the next election – whenever that may be. This price carries a two-in-three probability and reflects the likelihood that Labour will push for an entire term in office. 

Could Starmer Lose His Job?

Of course, there’s always the chance that Starmer is ousted from Downing Street or forced to call a snap election that he goes on to lose. Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss suffered the first fate, while Rishi Sunak endured the second.

Starmer and Labour are not in the sort of hole Johnson, Truss and Sunak found themselves in. However, his government needs to calm voters’ nerves and settle into the rhythm of running the country.

Labour made it clear at the start of the parliament that money was scarce and they would run the economy efficiently. Yet voters are calling out for money to be spent on public services.

Starmer is facing up to the left wing of his party and losing a fair bit of credit for doing so, while the right is mobilising around Badenoch and Nigel Farage – fresh from his escapades in the US.

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However, the PM is not a reactionary figure and seems comfortable handling criticism for now. The odds of 6/4 with betting apps on him leaving office in 2029 or beyond remain shorter than any other exit date and carry a 40% likelihood.

That shows the bookies are still relatively confident that Starmer can stay the course.

The big test will come in the spring when the UK’s energy prices hopefully come down and the economy picks up. However, Donald Trump’s return to the White House could spell danger for the UK economy if he imposes import tariffs.

Starmer was elected on a pledge of stability and growth. He’s struggling to achieve the first of these promises and the second looks a long way off.