Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Wetherby and the evening all-weather action at Dundalk for his three stats-based selections on Friday, November 1st…
WETHERBY 3.00
GALOP DE CHASSE (system – Venetia Williams handicap chasers, November)
This century, Venetia Williams has is 126 from 631 (20% strike-rate) with her handicap chasers in the month of November and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £201.59 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 93.81, A/E = 1.34). GALOP DE CHASSE contributed with a 4-1 reappearance November win last year – his sole start in the 2023/24 jumps season – and can repeat the dose, despite a slight concern about the drying ground.
DUNDALK 5.00
TINO PAI (system – Sheila Lavery 2yos, six or more previous runs)
Sheila Lavery has a good record with her more experienced juveniles, with those who had raced six times or more previously landing six of the 14 starts for a profit of £20.55 to a £1 level stake at SP. TINO PAI was a shade underwhelming in a 5f course and distance nursery when a qualifier on this angle last week but that was her first run on the all-weather and she might have needed a run to get used to a new surface. She’s a huge price (50-1 best at the time of writing) now back in maiden company but has the third best Proform speed rating and might be able to sneak a place.
DUNDALK 7.00
RAMPAGE (system – New Bay, top three finish last time out)
Progeny of the sire New Bay tend to hold their form well and simply backing those who had finished in the top three on their latest start would have found 176 winners from 687 bets (25.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £117.74 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 138.10, A/E = 1.27). RAMPAGE scored over course and distance on his penultimate start and followed that with a runner-up effort on turf at Bellewstown. The return to Polytrack will suit and his stall 14 draw could prove advantageous.
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