Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew found winners at 12-1 and 13-2 on Thursday and has four stats-based selections on Friday, October 11th…
YORK 1.30
LOOK BACK SMILING (system – Fast Company, soft or heavy going, Flat)
Progeny of the sire Fast Company have a 151 from 1105 record (13.7% strike-rate) when racing on officially soft or heavy going on the Flat and backing them blind would have returned a tiny profit at SP (+£0.65 to a £1 level stake). That profit becomes £329.65 at Betfair SP (after 2% commission) and a nice profit would also have been secured by taking the best early price before racing. LOOK BACK SMILING finished a solid seventh in the Cambridgeshire last month and today’s going (officially soft, heavy in places, looks ideal).
NEWMARKET 2.25
TROIA (system – Ed Walker, second-time out 2yos, won or ran within five lengths of the winner on debut)
Ed Walker does well with his second-time out juveniles and those who showed up well on debut, winning or running within five lengths of the winner, are 27 from 83 (32.5%) for a profit of £32.65. This year, simply backing all of the yard’s second time juvenile starters, regardless of where the finish on debut, would have found nine winners from 19 bets (+£52.03). TROIA has missed a few engagements on account of soft going since her debut good-ground win at Newbury in July and the drying conditions will be to her liking in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes.
NEWMARKET 3.00
POGO (system – Hills yard, Challenge Stakes)
Barry Hills had a good record in the Group 2 Challenge and his son Charles does too. Backing the Hills yard in this race since the year 2000 would have found six winners from 22 bets for a profit of £58.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. Five of the beaten horses finished second (14-1, 12-1, 10-1, 7-1 and 5-1) and another ran third (10-1). POGO won this race in 2022 and was second at 10-1 the year before, suggesting that the veteran might prove capable of running a big race from his stall 1 draw (possibly advantageous judged on recent evidence).
YORK 3.10
AL HUSSAR (system – Grand Tuer, second run since gelded)
Grant Tuer has a good recent record with his runners having their second start after a gelding operation, scoring with seven of the 21 qualifiers since the beginning of 2021 for a profit of £53.75. He’s four from six with last time out winners in that period AL HUSSAR, a 16-1 winner in a Catterick nursery last time, might be able to defy a tricky high draw in this 5f nursery.
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Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets |
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. |
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Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
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