Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew bids to get the new week off to a flyer with four stats-based selections at Down Royal, Hamilton, Wolverhampton and Newton Abbot on Monday, September 30th…
DOWN ROYAL 2.05
TINO PAI (system – Sheila Lavery 2yos, six or more previous runs)
Sheila Lavery has a fine record with very experienced juveniles, defined as having six of more previous outings. Backing all 13 qualifiers would have found six winners for a profit of £21.55 to a £1 level stake. Those running in nursery company recorded form figures of 1190115 (4-7) and TINO PAI, a respectable sixth of 14 in a 5f Naas nursery last time on what was her sixth career start, is taken to get off the mark.
NEWTON ABBOT 3.10
SKYJACK HIJACK (system – hurdle winners, quick return in a handicap hurdle, speed adjusted)
Winning hurdlers have a solid record when bidding to follow up in a British handicap hurdle after a break of seven days or less, landing 377 of their 934 starts since 2012 for a profit of £45.32. Those who were ranked first or second on last time out speed (according to Proform’s ratings) were 227 from 486 (46.75) for a profit of £75.21 (expected winners = 189.43, A/E = 1.20). SKYJACK HIJACK, tipped in this column last week when scoring at Perth, can follow up.
HAMILTON 4.10
MON NA SLIEVE (system – Kevin Ryan 3yos, first run after a wind operation, Class 5 or lower)
Kevin Ryan does well with three-year-olds on their first run back after a wind operation, especially in lower grade contests. Blindly backing all the qualifiers in Class 5 or lesser company would have found ten winners from 35 bets for a profit of £39.63 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.21, A/E = 2.38). MON NA SLIEVE has lost six in a row since scoring at York on his debut in May 2023 but the wind operation can help him return to winning ways.
WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00
BEAT THE CLOCK (system – Time Test, 1m+ on Tapeta)
Progeny of the sire Time Test have a 19 from 130 record (14.6%) when running over one mile or further on Tapeta and backing them blind would have returned a huge profit of £202.85 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 12.42, A/E = 1.53). BEAT THE CLOCK finished a neck back in third over 9.4f here in January on his only previous course outing and looks set to improve for the step up to 1m4f for the first time.
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Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets |
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. |
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Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers aged 18 or over opt in and stake £10+ on any sporting event.
- The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1/2 (1.50).
- Once the qualifying bet settles 3x £10 free bets will be awarded to your account.
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- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
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- Further terms and conditions apply.