Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew bids to get the new week off to a flyer with three stats-based picks at Ripon, Musselburgh and Lingfield on Tuesday, August 27th…
RIPON 3.25
FOCUS ON ZAAM (system – Ivan Furtado, nursery debut, colts/geldings)
Ivan Furtado has been in fine form of late, scoring with four of his last seven runners (17-2, 4-1, 4-1 and 8-11). The Nottinghamshire handler has a good overall record in nurseries, sending out ten winners form 50 such runners since 2017 for a profit of £98.80, with the colts/geldings who were making their handicap debut were five from 16 (+£89.00) and FOCUS ON ZAAM, an eyecatching 250-1 third of seven in a Ripon novice last time, can take another step forward on his handicap debut.
MUSSELBURGH 3.40
BELIEVE ME NOW (system – Iain Jardine, last-time out winners, recent run, turf)
Iain Jardine has a good record on turf with runners who scored on their latest outing, with those returned to the track within 20 days landing 68 of their 229 starts (29.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £58.97 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 47.70, A/E = 1.43). BELIEVE ME NOW defied a market drift (10-1 from 5-1) when scoring by a neck from Rebecca’s Girl at Ayr on her recent stable debut and that form has been franked by the runner-up, who went one better at Carlisle just nine days later. Rebecca’s Girl takes on the selection again, but the Jardine horse could be in receipt of an easy lead on a track where it’s difficult to come from off the pace.
LINGFIELD 5.38
MADRIGAL MOMENT (system – Michael Bell, second-time out 2yos, AW, rested for more than three weeks)
Michael Bell does well with his second-time juvenile starts, especially those running on the all-weather who had been off the track for more than three weeks since their racecourse debuts. He’s scored with eight of the 35 qualifiers since 2012 for a profit of £95.06 to a £1 level stake at SP and MADRIGAL MOMENT might be able to reward each-way support at a big price (50-1 best at the time of writing) despite only beating one home on turf at Lingfield last month.
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