Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew was among the winners on Friday and has three more stats-based selections on Saturday, December 14th…
CHELTENHAM 12.40
TRANSMISSION (system – Neil Mulholland chasers at Cheltenham, non-festival)
Neil Mulholland has a solid record with his handicap chasers at Cheltenham, outside of the festival, scoring with 17 of the 62 qualifiers for a profit of £49.39 to a £1 level stake at SP. TRANSMISSION contributed with an 11-4 victory here last month and can follow up.
CHELTENHAM 3.00
CLONDAW GENERAL (system – Bristol Novices’ Hurdle, five-year-olds)
Since 2012, nine of the 11 runnings of the 3m Bristol Novices’ Hurdle have gone to five-year-olds and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £11.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.77, A/E = 1.56). Six-year-old Skyjack Hijack heads the market, but the value could lie with CLONDAW GENERAL, who overcame greenness to win well at Worcester on his hurdles debut.
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30
HAVANA TOUCH (system – Wolverhampton stall 1 flops)
It’s not easy to win from stall 1 at Wolverhampton, especially in handicaps of 7+ runners over the shorter trips (5f-9.4f). Favourites who flopped from stall 1 under such conditions – defined as finishing worse than fourth – often make good bets next time, landing 18 of their 82 starts since the beginning of 2019 for a profit of £71.98 (expected winners = 9.10, A/E = 1.98). The last two qualifiers won at 22-1 and 14-1 and perhaps HAVANA TOUCH can get the hat-trick up.
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