Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads Ascot (Champions Day), Catterick and Stratford for his four stats-based selections on Saturday, October 19th…
STRATFORD 2.55
STRONG BELLE (system – Nigel Twiston-Davies, October)
Nigel Twiston-Davies does well at this time of year and, since 2004, backing his runners in October would have found 269 winners from 1301 runners (20.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £120.07 to a £1 level stake at SP. In Class 4 company only, the score was 108 winners from 439 runners for a profit of £199.62. STRONG BELLE pulled up at Kelso in May when we last saw here but that was in a valuable Class 2 handicap hurdle, and she drops to Class 4 level today.
ASCOT 4.35
BOPEDRO (system – Balmoral Handicap, low draw, very recent run)
Nine of the last ten winners of the Balmoral Handicap were draw in stall 10 or lower (once adjusted for non-runners) and the last ten winners had prepped between one and 27 days earlier. Combining these two angles in the past ten years would have found nine winners from 64 bets and returned a profit of £111.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Last year’s qualifiers included the 25-1 winner and 40-1 runner-up and we have five to choose from this time, namely BOPEDRO, CARRYTHEONE, STAR OF ORION, POPMASTER and MEXICALI. I’ll probably ‘dutch’ the quintet and combine them in Tote Exacta and Trifecta bets but the safest port of call if you want just one is to play each-way on last year’s fourth BOPEDRO, who ran a blinder against the bias in the Cambridgeshire (second best of those drawn high) before his 28-1 third of 18 in a 7f heritage handicap here at Ascot.
CATTERICK 4.45
GLORIOUS ANGEL (system- Grant Tuer, fillies/mares in handicaps)
Grant Tuer has a solid record with fillies and mares in handicaps and not just when they race against their own sex. Since the beginning of 2019, he’s scored with 28 of the 155 qualifiers (18.1%) for a profit of £25.27 (expected winners = 19.85, A/E = 1.41). He has two qualifiers in this 5f Class 2 handicap including GLORIOUS ANGEL, who was second by a short head in this race last year. She looks well drawn in stall 8 and can go one better.
STARTFORD 5.20
SUPASUNRISE (system – Nigel Twiston-Davies, second run after a wind operation)
SUPASUNRISE shaped well on his return from a wind operation earlier this month, finishing a 9-1 second of 13 at Southwell. Nigel Twiston-Davies hasn’t got the best record with horses on their first run after the surgery, but second time back is a different story. The chasers are four from 13 (+£11.50) scoring, including three of the last six, suggesting that the eight-year-old could be the answer to this 2m6.5f handicap chase.
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