Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
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Andrew heads to Carlisle to the evening all-weather action at Southwell for his three recommended bets/trades on Thursday, October 24th…
CARLISLE 2.55
ILLICO DE COTTE, who makes his chase/seasonal debut after a wind operation, looks sure to be popular in this 3m2f novices’ handicap but Dan Skelton has a poor recent record with top-weighted chase debutants in handicaps and I’m going to oppose the six-year-old. He went close over hurdles on his comeback last term but, since the beginning of 2021, his trainer is 0-22 with chase debutants who carried top weight in handicap company (expected winners = 4.21). We successfully opposed Asta La Pasta on this angle at Ffos Last earlier this month and a stiff 3m2f on slow ground is hardly going to be ideal for a horse who has experienced breathing difficulties in the past. Sell in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Oppose ILLICO DE COTTE in Carlisle 2.55
CARLISLE 5.15
O’CONNELL is another Sue Smith-trained early-season break-returner who might prove vulnerable on his reappearance. The son of Westerner was only third of seven when 100-30 for his comeback run last term and backing the yard’s fresh horses (rested for more than 90 days) over hurdles or fences from May to November, since 2013, would have found just 15 winners from 253 bets (4.25% strike-rate) for a loss of £216.29 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 34.95, A/E = 0.43). Trip and track are no problem but I can see lack of peak fitness causing him problems at the business end and he rates a sell in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market.
Recommendation: Oppose O’CONNELL in Carlisle 5.15
SOUTHWELL 5.30
It’s not been easy to come from too far back in 5f handicaps on Southwell’s Tapeta surface and Nigel Tinkler’s EXCEED looks worth opposing. The four-year-old ran third (9-4f) at Newcastle on his latest outing to take his all-weather record to 0-6 and he’ll need to be ridden more prominently than usual if he’s to take a hand. Rather than sell him in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market I’m going to buy HAVECHATMA, who clocked a fast time when scoring over course and distance under a prominent ride on her latest start. Dean Ivory’s four-year-old now has form figures on Tapeta of 611 (2-3), with the defeat excusable as she blew the start.
Recommendation: Back HAVECHATMA in Southwell 5.30
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