Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to the meetings at Dundalk, Chepstow and Salisbury for his four stats-based selections on Thursday, August 15th…
DUNDALK 1.45
DAZZLING ANGEL (system – Paddy Twomey, second career start)
Paddy Twomey has a fine record with horses having their second career start, scoring with 31 of the 92 qualifiers (33.7% strike-rate) and backing the qualifiers would have returned a profit of £10.87 to a £1 level stake at SP.
On the All-Weather only, his form figures are 221121 (3-6) for a profit of £2.12. DAZZLING ANGEL, fourth of 16 in a 7f fillies’ maiden at Gowran Park on last month’s debut, can get off the mark.
CHEPSTOW 2.10
BAMA LAMA (system – seasonal preference)
BAMA LAMA has a cracking record in handicap company during the months of July and August, recording form figures of 1122331261142 (5-13) for a profit of £14.88 to a £1 level stake at SP.
The step back up to 6f won’t harm her chances after her runner-up effort over the minimum trip at Ffos Las and she’s won here twice before.
CHEPSTOW 2.45
SAHARA DANCER – (system – Cool Silk Partnership, 2yo debut)
Owners The Cool Silk Partnership do well with juvenile debutants, scoring with 16 of the 78 qualifiers for a profit of £74.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 8.05, A/E = 1.99).
Archie Watson is two from five on this system (+£4.88) and perhaps SAHARA DANCER, whose stablemate and half-brother Rhythm N Hooves, went close to scoring on his two-year-old debut, can get off the mark at the first time of asking.
SALISBURY 3.35
QILIN QUEEN (system – Ed Walker, second time out 2yos, beaten by 6L or less on debut)
Ed Walker’s juveniles usually need their first run, but those that are beaten yet run within six lengths of the winner make good bets next time out, landing 27 of their 91 starts for a profit of £20.53 (expected winners = 21.08, A/E = 1.28).
His four qualifiers this year have recorded form figures of 1112 (3-4) and QILIN QUEEN, beaten by five and a half lengths when a 12-1 third of seven at Newbury on last month’s debut, can go two places better.
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