Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Chelmsford, Carlisle and Newbury for his three stats-based selections on Thursday, August 29th…
CHELMSFORD 2.10
ROCK D’ORO (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)
Owners Amo Racing do well with newcomers, regardless of age and who trains them, scoring with 46 of the 221 qualifiers (20.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £28.73 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 36.42, A/E = 1.26). Ralph Beckett’s Breeze-up purchase ROCK D’ORO set connections back 130,000euros and should know his job. He has a fair draw in stall 5 and his trainer has a good record at Chelmsford.
CARLISLE 3.48
UNCLE SAM (system – Kevin Ryan, Washington DC)
Kevin Ryan seems to have a soft spot for Washington DC, sending out 16 runners from the sire in 2022, 22 last year and 35 so far in 2024. Backing all 73 runners would have found 11 winners and returned a profit of £50.63 to the usual £1 level stake at SP. The bulk of the winners have come on the all-weather but UNCLE SAM, whose best of four efforts came on soft ground here in June, could be worth chancing to small stakes in this 7f nursery.
NEWBURY 4.45
AVALON (system – Ed Walker, second time out 2yos, beaten by 5L or less on debut)
Ed Walker has a fine record with his second time out juveniles and those who were beaten but ran within five lengths of the winner on their debut are 26 from 79 (32.9%) for a profit of £29.65. This year’s qualifiers have recorded form figures of 1112 (3-4) and perhaps AVALON can make it four from five. The Showcasing filly caught the eye on last month’s debut when a three-length fifth of seven at Salisbury and can get off the mark at the second time of asking, just like her dam, her sire and, very nearly, her full sister Mutamanni (beaten by a short head before winning third time out).
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T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
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