Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Taunton, Newcastle (AW) and Warwick for his three stats-based selections on Thursday, December 12th…
TAUNTON 2.05
TOUT SUR MOI (system – Jane Williams, handicappers in December)
Since 2018, Jane Williams has won with 15 of her 92 handicappers in the month of December for a profit of £18.26 to a £1 level stake at SP and TOUT SUR MOI qualifies in this 2m7.5f novices’ handicap chase. The five-year-old finished second, albeit a modest second, over hurdles here last time and can take a step forward on his chase debut.
NEWCASTLE 2.17
BLUE LAKOTA (system – Sioux Nation, small fields)
Progeny of the sire Sioux Nation have a good record in small fields (ten or fewer runners), landing 126 of their 679 starts (18.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £75.65 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 103.13, A/E = 1.20). Those who finished second, third or fourth last time out were 65 from 222 (29.3%) for a profit of £110.67 and BLUE LAKOTA, runner-up here the last twice, qualifies in this ten-runner 6f handicap.
WARWICK 3.00
MAKO OF THE GLADE (system – Venetia Williams, handicap chasers, first run after a wind operation).
Since wind operations had to be declared at the end of January in 2018, Venetia Williams is 16 from 48 with her handicap chasers on their first start after the procedure for a profit of £60.53 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those returning from a break of 150 days or longer were 14 from 40 (+£61.53) and MAKE OF THE GLADO has undergone the surgery before his chase debut.
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