Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Nottingham, Southwell (AW) and Wolverhampton (AW) for his three stats-based selections on Thursday, October 24th…
NOTTINGHAM 5.00
TEMPER TRAP (system – winning sequence pattern)
As a general rule, it pays to avoid Tim Easterby-trained last time out winners, as they rarely follow up. This year, he’s won with just six of the 84 qualifiers (7.1%) for a loss of £53.30 to a £1 level stake at SP (the expected number of winners, based on their odds, was 12.17). However, TEMPER TRAP is one of the exceptions – he landed three on the bounce last year and doubled up in both 2022 and 2020. The eight-year-old appreciated the strong gallop when bolting up in a 14-runner handicap at Leicester on October 8 and followed-up in similar fashion at Redcar last week to take his turf record immediately following a win to 17812181141 (6-11), improving to 1111 (4-4) on officially soft or heavy going, conditions he encounters today.
SOUTHWELL 6.00
EPIMETEO (system – Time Test, 1m+, Tapeta)
Progeny of the sire Time Test do well on Tapeta when given a trip of a mile or further, landing 20 of their 134 starts (15% strike-rate) for a profit of £217.85 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 12.60, A/E = 1.59). EPIMETEO ran green when a close-up 7-1 third at Brighton on his recent debut and his half-brother Out Of Shadows scored at Wolverhampton on his Tapeta debut. For information, WHAT A NATION also qualifies on the same system in this race.
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.15
BEVERAGINO (system – Clifford Lee riding for Michael Bell)
BEVERAGINO has hardly set the world alight in two starts since undergoing wind surgery, but she shaped as though worth another try over a longer trip when a 22-1 eighth of 11 in a 7f fillies’ handicap at Southwell last time and I like the booking of Clifford Lee. He’s nine from 24 when riding for Michael Bell and backing his mounts blind would have returned a profit of £20.68 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.21, A/E = 2.14).
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T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. |
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