Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to the meetings at Newcastle (jumps) and Bath (Flat) for his two stats-based selections on Thursday, October 31st…
NEWCASTLE 1.45
SKYKACK HIJACK (system – LTO hurdler winner, quick return in handicap company, speed adjusted)
Since the beginning of 2012, backing last-time out hurdle winners who were returned to the track within seven days to contest a handicap hurdle (Class 2 or lower) would have found 378 winners from 936 bets (40.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £44.82 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who had one of the two highest last-time out speed ratings (according to Proform’s figures) were 227 from 486 (46.7%) for a profit of £75.21 (expected winners = 189.43, A/E = 1.20). SKYJACK HIJACK arrives here on a four-timer and could again prove hard to beat.
BATH 2.58
TAP DANCER (system – Marcus Tregoning, nurseries)
This century, Marcus Tregoning has a 16 from 79 record with his runners in nurseries (20.3% strike-rate) and backing them all would have returned a profit of £23.21 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 10.43, A/E = 1.53). Since the beginning of all year his qualifiers have recorded form figures of 113111 (5-6) and recent wide-margin 1m2f course winner TAP DANCER is taken to make a winning handicap debut, despite cutting back in trip to 1m.
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T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. |
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Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets |
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. |
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Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers aged 18 or over opt in and stake £10+ on any sporting event.
- The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1/2 (1.50).
- Once the qualifying bet settles 3x £10 free bets will be awarded to your account.
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- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
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- Further terms and conditions apply.