Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Market Rasen and Newcastle (AW) for his three stats-based selections on Tuesday, October 15th…
MARKET RASEN 2.05
JACKS WISH (system – Nigel Twiston-Davies, October)
In the past 20 years, Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 269 from 1299 record in the month of October (20.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £122.07 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 223.53, A/E = 1.20). So far this month, the score is ten from 28 (+£11.85) and JACKS WISH looks worth chancing on his hurdles debut despite his modest form in two good-ground bumpers.
NEWCASTLE 4.58
BRAVO ZULU (system – Daniel & Claire Kubler, long travellers)
The Kublers have a good record when shipping a runner more than 250 miles to the racecourse, scoring with 18 of the 86 qualifiers (21%) for a profit of £62.92 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 11.04, A/E = 1.63). BRAVO ZULU was punted from 14-1 into 9-2 when the betting first opened for this 1m2f handicap, and it looks as though his connections are confident about recouping losses occurred at Windsor last month where he could only finish tenth of 12 as the 7-2 favourite on his second start for the yard.
NEWCASTLE 5.30
MYSTICAL SKY (system – Charlie Johnston, all-weather handicaps, second run since gelded)
Since the spring of 2016 the Johnston yard has a 23 from 94 record with all-weather handicappers who were having their second start since a gelding operation. Backing all the qualifiers would have returned a profit of £28.62 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 14.69, A/E = 1.57). MYSTICAL SKY was tailed off at Ayr last time but was 250-1 in novice company and the combination of first-time headgear and the switch to handicap company can bring about improvement.
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