Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew found 18-5 Pontefract winner SOPHIA’S STARLIGHT on Monday and has three more stats-based selections on Tuesday, October 22nd…
NEWCASTLE 4.15
DRAMATIC STAR (system – William Haggas, gelded since last run, all-weather)
In the past five years, William Haggas has a 14 from 34 record on the all-weather with his newly-gelded runners and backing them all would have returned a profit of £10.76 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 8.61, A/E = 1.63). The score at Newcastle in the same period is four from six and DRAMATIC STAR, who had excuses when disappointing at York’s Ebor meeting (fractious in the preliminaries and poorly drawn)
EXETER 4.28
ROSE OF ARCADIA (system – Joe Tizzard, first-run after a wind operation, handicaps)
The Tizzard yard has a solid record with handicappers on their first run back after a wind operation, scoring with 16 of the 100 qualifiers for a profit of £57.38 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 10.19, A/E = 1.57). Star Of Affinity was a 13-2 winner for this column at the last Exeter meeting and perhaps ROSE OF ARCADIA can follow suit in this 3m handicap chase. The nine-year-old tends to perform best in the warmer months, recording form figures in the March to October period of 145113114 (5-9) for a profit of £7.21.
EXETER 5.03
CATBOY (system – Christian Williams, second-time cheekpieces, wore cheekpieces for first time on latest start)
Christian Williams has a useful record when running one of his horses in first-time cheekpieces, scoring with ten of the 44 qualifiers for a profit of £22.00 (expected winners = 5.39, A/E = 1.86), but it’s the cheek-pieced runners who had the headgear on for the first time on their previous start that are most interesting. He’s scored with eight of the 25 qualifiers (32%) for a profit of £25.75. Those who won in the first-time pieces were five from nine when bidding to follow up in the same headgear and that brings in CATBOY, successful at Fontwell last month.
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Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets |
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. |
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Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
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