Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Bangor-on-Dee and Newcastle (AW) for his three stats-based selections on Tuesday, October 29th…
BANGOR 2.22
WALKING THE WALK (systems – Kerry Lee Chasers, first run after a wind operation)
Kerry Lee has a solid record with her chase runners on their first start following a wind operation, scoring with five of the 19 qualifiers for a profit of £34.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Four of the beaten horses ran second (20-1, 11-1, 9-1 and 5-2) and WALKING THE WALK could be worth a small each-way interest at a huge price (33-1 bets at the time of writing) on his first run back following the surgery. He pulled up at Worcester in July when we last saw him but has form when fresh and the softer going will suit.
NEWCASTLE 5.00
SURE AND STEDFAST (system – Calyx 2yos, all-weather)
Juvenile progeny of the sire Calyx have a good record on the all-weather, with 16 of the 56 qualifiers scoring for a huge profit of £127.02 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 8.43, A/E = 1.90). In nursery company the score is five from 11 (+£19.33) and it might be worth chancing SURE AND STEDFAST to take a step forward now that he goes handicapping on Tapeta after three runs on turf. He was last seen finishing fourth at 50-1 in a 7f restricted maiden at Musselburgh and the three that beat him are currently rated 75, 87 and 70, while the sixth from that race, Unforgetable Belle, has since won a nursery off 69. Ewan Whillans colt runs off 69 and looks generously priced (16-1 best at the time of writing).
NEWCASTLE 5.30
BARLEYBROWN (system – Ruth Carr, last time out winners, recent run, AW)
Ruth Carr does well when returning a last-time out winner to the track within 15 days, with those running on the all-weather landing 11 of their 32 starts since the beginning of 2021 for a profit of £44.08 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.54, A/E = 1.99). BARLEYBROWN scored by three and a half lengths over course and distance last week to take his record on the all-weather to 2310149131 (4-10) and can follow up under a 5lb penalty.
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T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
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