Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads York (day 1 of the Ebor festival) and Kempton for his three stats-based picks on Wednesday, August 21st…
YORK 1.50
JM JUNGLE (system – Symphony Stakes Handicap, pace, age and recent run angle)
Prominent racers have a good record in York’s opener on Wednesday and backing those with a Proform pace rating of six or higher (based on the last three starts, awarding 4pt for a front-running effort, 2pt for a prominent ride (e.g chased/tracked leaders) and zero pts for a hold-up effort) would have found nine of the last ten winners. Backing only those qualifiers aged four or older who had raced within the past 28 days would have found nine winners from 71 bets for a profit of £62.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.18, A/E = 2.18). JM JUNGLE is one of the seven qualifiers today and he ran a fine race in this contest 12 months ago as a three-year-old, finishing third at 12-1 and doing best of those drawn high (he’s the only three-year-old from 21 runners to place in this race in the past ten years).
KEMPTON 6.20
CHELSEA EMBANKMENT (system – Ralph Beckett, second run in a nursery)
Ralph Beckett does well with his runners who were having their second go in nursery company, scoring with 18 of the 77 qualifiers (23.4%) since the beginning of 2013 for a profit of £30.08 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 12.86, A/E = 1.40). On the all-weather only, the score in the same period is nine from 26 (34.6%) for a profit of £24.33 and CHELSEA EMABNKMENT, a close-up third at Yarmouth on his nursery debut last month, is taken to go two places better on his first run beyond 7f.
KEMPTON 8.00
MEHMASSELF AND I (system – Mehmas, Polytrack nurseries)
Progeny of Mehmas do well in nurseries on the all-weather, especially on Polytrack, with 16 of the 68 qualifiers scoring for a huge profit of £107.46 to a £1 level stake at SP. MEHMASSELF AND I showed little in a Sandown last time but that was his first run since a gelding operation, and he needed it for a mark. The first-time visor suggests intent on his all-weather/handicap debut and he can take a step forward.
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