Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Catterick, Kempton and Musselburgh for his three stats-based selections on Wednesday, October 2nd…
CATTERICK 4.30
MISS WILLOWS (system – Simon Whitaker, soft ground late season angle)
The Whitaker yard has always made hay in the second half of the Flat turf season (August to November) when the mud is flying (defined as officially soft or heavy going). Backing all 108 qualifiers since 2010 would have found 18 winners and made a profit of £28.03 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 10.28, A/E = 1.75). MISS WILLOWS likes it here, enjoys the mud and could proved hard to pass if the fist-time blinkers perk her up.
KEMPTON 4.35
MANARA (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)
Owners Amo Racing have a solid record with racecourse debutants, regardless of age and who trains them. They’ve scored with 48 of the 230 qualifiers (20.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £29.23 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 37.94, A/E= 1.27). This system is showing a loss so far in 2024 after three profitable years but the last 13 runners have produced four winners (7-1, 6-1, 11-2 and 1-2) and three seconds (11-1, 8-1 and 5-1) and I’m going to chance Kevin Philippart De Foy’s Camelot filly MANARA, despite the wide draw.
MUSSELBURGH 5.15
CATRAKE FORCE (system – Grant Tuer, fillies and mares in handicaps on turf)
In-form Grant Tuer has a useful record with fillies and mares in turf handicaps, regardless of whether they raced against their own sex or were up against male rivals. This angle has produced 28 winners from 152 bets since the beginning of 2019 (18.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £28.27 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 19.78, A/E = 1.42). CATRAKE FORCE has failed to progress since last November’s 33-1 second at Wolverhampton on her racecourse debut but could be worth chancing now switched to turf for the first time.
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Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets |
T&Cs apply. New cust only. Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse Racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.
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