Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Fakenham, Newton Abbot and Kempton (AW) for his three stats-based selections on Wednesday, October 30th…
FAKENHAM 2.20
AWESOME FOURSOME (system – Nigel Twiston-Davies, October)
In the past 20 years, Nigel Twiston-Davies has won with 274 of his 1326 runners (20.7% strike-rate) in the month of October for a profit of £116.49 to a £1 level stake at SP. So far this month the score is 15 from 55 (27.3%, +£6.28) and AWESOME FOURSOME might be able to keep the ball rolling in this novices’ handicap chase. The seven-year-old disappointed at Market Rasen in June when we last saw him but has form when fresh, scoring on his racecourse debut in May 2022 and returning from two months off to land a handicap hurdle at Perth last September. The switch to chasing could suit.
NEWTON ABBOT 2.30
MR GREY SKY (system – Kim Bailey, early-season break-returners)
Kim Bailey has a good recent record in the October-December period with his runners returning from a break of at least 150 days, scoring with 32 of the 124 qualifiers since 2021 for a profit of £52.75 (expected winners = 20.55, A/E = 1.56). MR GREY SKY has a good record on his first two runs each season, recording form figures of 113335111 (5-9) and the ten-year-old will appreciate the heavy going when he reappears in this 2m handicap chase.
KEMPTON 7.00
TOUCH THE MOON (system – George Scott, geldings in AW handicaps)
In-form George Scott has a fine record with geldings in all-weather handicaps, scoring with 35 of the 138 qualifiers (25.4% strike-rate) since the beginning of 2022 for a profit of £26.93 (expected winners = 23.62, A/E = 1.48). TOUCH THE MOON has shaped as though the step up to tonight’s 1m4f trip would suit in two runs for his current yard and can make a winning all-weather debut.
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