Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Carlisle (Flat) and Worcester (jumps) for his three stats-based picks on Wednesday, September 11th…
CARLISLE 2.20
MAID OF KILLYBEGS (system – Charlie Johnston, 2yo debutantes in sprints)
Charlie Johnston has had a disappointing season but the yard’s record with female newcomers in two-year-old sprints (5f-6f) – 56 winners form 249 runners since 2012 (22.5% strike-rate, +£95.11 to a £1 level stake at SP) – suggests that MAID OF KILLYBEGS could run a big race on her debut. The score is seven from 25 since Charlie held the licence in his own name (+£30.83), including six from ten over today’s 6f trip (+£41.83). The daughter of Acclamation is a half-sister to five winners including Killybegs Warrior who made a winning debut in these colours in July 2022.
CARLISLE 2.50
CUGINI (system – Land Force, soft or heavy going)
Progeny of the sire Land Force have a solid record on soft or heavy going (based on race times, not the official verdict), with nine of the 37 qualifiers scoring for a profit of £63.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. CUGINI drops in class after a respectable 50-1 12th of 17 at York’s Ebor meeting last month and could improve now encountering deep ground for the first time.
WORCESTER 4.03
MOODOFTHEMOMENT (system – Matt Sheppard, second run for yard, chasers, recent run)
Matt Sheppard has a modest record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards but they it’s a different story on their second start for the stable, especially with the chasers who had the benefit of a recent run (within four weeks). He’s scored with eight of the 28 qualifiers since 2015 (28.6%% strike-rate) for a profit of £74.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. MOODOFTHEMOMENT, a four-time point-to-point winner and second at 10-1 over course and distance on last month’s yard debut, is taken to go one better.
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