Manchester City fans are understandably delighted that Pep Guardiola has signed a new two-year contract at the club.
The 53-year-old has masterminded an unprecedented era of success for City, winning six of the past seven Premier League titles including each of the past four and leading them to a maiden UEFA Champions League as part of a historic 2022/23 treble.
Guardiola’s current terms were set to expire at the end of this season and speculation was mounting over his next move, given he signed each of his past two extensions in 2020 and 2022 during the November international break.
So far, so familiar. But the context this time is undeniably very different.
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This is Guardiola’s first renewal since the Premier League charged City with 115 breaches of its competition rules in February 2022. You can read a full breakdown of those charges and what they mean here.
The Premier League’s case against City recently concluded a 10-week hearing in London in front of an independent panel. If the most serious charges are proven, it could mean a heavy points deduction, relegation or expulsion for the league’s perpetual champions.
The end of the hearing and Guardiola’s decision to commit to City once more has struck many as more than coincidental.
So, does he know something we don’t?
Does Pep Guardiola know the outcome of Man City’s 115 case?
Before diving into this, we should make absolutely clear from the outset that — irrespective of what Guardiola may or may not know — we don’t have a clue.
The 115 case has been shrouded in secrecy ever since City’s lead KC Lord Pannick and his team were photographed entering London’s International Dispute Resolution Centre on the first day of the hearing in September. Given the stakes at play, confidentiality is paramount.
However, it’s fair to assume that Guardiola and other City insiders will have a steer on how well or otherwise their case is going from the perspective of their legal team.
No projections of that kind can be made with any certainty given the independent panel might come at things from an entirely different direction.
Let’s imagine we were dealing with news of Guardiola leaving at the end of this season with the 115 verdict due. It’s not hard to envisage what the reaction might be over what that would mean. The words “sinking ship” and “rats” would perhaps be liberally thrown around.
So it certainly doesn’t suggest bad news for City in terms of 115 that Guardiola is staying.
By the same token, their coach’s attitude towards the whole process suggests the case and how it may or may not be developing is not particularly relevant to his thinking.
If City believe their case is going well, it will only underline that club’s strongly held belief from the outset of its legal wranglings with UEFA in 2018 that their body of evidence will see the cards fall in their favour.
For Guardiola, that UEFA case looks vaguely like a radicalising moment. Prior to it, he tended to avoid the discourse around off-field matters. But when the Court of Arbitration for Sport overturned a two-year ban from UEFA competitions for Financial Fair Play breaches in July 2020, the widespread reaction that City had merely got off on a technicality notably riled Guardiola.
Like in the Premier League case, allegations that City had artificially inflated sponsorships with money from their Abu Dhabi owners was at the heart of UEFA’s prosecution. CAS found such claims relating to City’s main sponsorship with Etihad Airways to be unproven, while a sponsorship with telecommunications company Etisalat was time-barred under UEFA’s own rules – hence all the technicality talk.
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Guardiola had previously said he would leave City if it was proven the club’s board and owners had lied to him. Since CAS, he appears to be of the opinion that the club has been found innocent and anything that sticks to them subsequently is simply mud-slinging from rivals.
His pronouncements that he would happily manage City in League Two is playing to the gallery to a large extent. But they again show that the case was never a motivating factor over his next move when set against an insatiable hunger for sporting competition and his family’s wishes.
That is far more relevant than what Guardiola may or may not know about a seismic outcome expected in early 2025.